Massive crowds have converged on Tehran to mark the passing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who served as Iran’s Supreme Leader for 35 years. His body is lying in state at the Grand Mosalla prayer ground through Monday, allowing the public to pay respects before a procession that will carry his remains to several cities across Iran and into Iraq. The scale of the gathering underscores the central role Khamenei played in shaping the Islamic Republic’s domestic politics and foreign policy since he assumed the position in 1989 following the death of the revolution’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Khamenei’s leadership spanned a transformative era for Iran. He oversaw the country’s reconstruction after the devastating eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, navigated periods of intense international isolation and sanctions pressure, and managed the expansion of Iran’s regional influence through a network of allied militias and political groups often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” Domestically, his tenure saw the consolidation of theocratic authority under the concept of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), the violent suppression of major protest movements in 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022, and a persistent struggle to manage an economy battered by mismanagement, corruption, and external restrictions.
The immediate focus now shifts to the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of clerics elected by the public but vetted by the Guardian Council. This assembly holds the constitutional mandate to select the next Supreme Leader. While the process is opaque, speculation has long centered on a few potential candidates, including Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a mid-ranking cleric who has operated behind the scenes, and hardline figures such as former judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi (who died in a helicopter crash in May 2024) or current Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The choice will signal whether the establishment prioritizes ideological continuity, managerial competence, or internal factional balance.
The transition carries significant weight beyond Iran’s borders. Khamenei was the architect of the “Look East” strategy, deepening strategic ties with China and Russia while maintaining a confrontational posture toward the United States and Israel. His successor will inherit a nuclear program that has advanced significantly — enriching uranium up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade — and a regional network currently under immense strain from Israeli military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Any shift in doctrine, even rhetorical, could alter the calculus for ongoing indirect negotiations with Washington over sanctions relief and nuclear limits, as well as the stability of proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
For the average citizen, the succession is not merely a clerical affair. The Supreme Leader controls the armed forces, state media, the judiciary, and the Guardian Council that disqualifies election candidates. His decisions directly affect daily life: internet access, dress codes, economic policy, and the risk of war. Many Iranians, particularly younger generations, view the system as illegitimate and unresponsive, a sentiment fueling repeated uprisings. The new leader’s ability — or willingness — to address grievances over inflation, unemployment, and social repression will determine whether the current calm holds or gives way to renewed unrest. The funeral processions, while a show of state strength, also reveal the deep polarization within Iranian society.
Image: Photo: Ted McDonnell · Pexels
Based on reporting from BBC.
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